Unlimited (Money) Game. Black to play 11
Welcome to the Problem of the Week
We are starting a new feature on the Milwaukee Backgammon Club website, the Problem of the Week. Each week we will post a problem and ask our members and other interested backgammon players to discuss the position and explain what they believe the best move is, and why. The following week we will post a rollout of the position — and hopefully be able to provide an explanation of the reasoning why the best move is the best. Don’t be shy, join the discussion and share in the learning.
I’m guessing we don’t want to move the checker on the 14 point since that increases white’s chances of hitting on the next roll. Maybe 8/7 8/5?
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The odds of white hitting the black piece on the 14 actually go down if you advance it to the 13-spot (white would have to roll a 1 instead of a 2, or 11/36 vs. 12/36, and double 2s might even kill black’s gammon chances), since none of the indirect hits from the 2-point count while white is still on the bar. And moving the black checker to 13 increases the chances of moving it to safety on the next roll (a direct 6 instead of an indirect 7). So I’d move: 8/7, 8/6, 14/13.
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If we are at the 13, white hits with 21, which is 2 numbers out of 36. If we are at the 14, white only hits with 22, which is 1 out of 36. You make a good point about the checker moving to safety on the next roll, so maybe it is best to step up to the 13.
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You are correct about the hitting odds, Steve. I hadn’t thought to include getting off the bar — DOH!
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